“It remains to be seen if it’s good in the long run but what’s exciting is Amazon has proven the ability to move product,” said Ben Gottlieb, president of mobile app maker Stand Alone Inc. “It all depends on the implementation. But if they live up to what they say, we can make more money.”
That’s a real issue. Gottlieb, who sells a crossword app, says he makes 20-30 times more selling his apps in the App Store compared to Android Market. It’s gotten a little better lately, but it’s still discouraging trying to sell in Android Market, which has more than 80,000 apps. Developers like Gottlieb say the store needs more recommendation and discovery tools, more categories, a better check-out system and more marketing muscle. These are all things that Amazon could immediately address.
Arron La, maker of the Advanced Task Manager app, said Amazon could help ignite sales by giving better recommendation tips and making checkouts easier for users. He said Google Checkout can be a nightmare at times, sometimes charging people multiple times for one app. A reliable and familiar system like Amazon’s could prompt people to open up their wallets, something they don’t do that much of in the Android Market. He also hopes that Amazon will do more to promote apps and advertise its app store, which Google has shied away from.
Google, for its part, is working on a number of changes, including a new web-based Android Market and a reported deal with PayPal for payments. And it just expanded the number of countries that can buy paid apps.Even with those improvements, La feels better about Amazon because the company seems more committed to making money, something Google seems less interested in. Google claims it doesn’t make any money from Android Market.
“Once you have the right things in place and you get that ecosystem going, you can definitely make money out of it,” he said. “But that’s been what’s hurting Android Market. Everyone using Google devices, they want and expect everything for free. When Google released Android market, they had no paid apps in the beginning.”
To be sure, an Amazon Android store or a similar market from Verizon Wireless could be a headache for developers. Developers would have to get in the habit of submitting and updating apps in multiple markets. Users might get confused as to who to turn to for apps or support. Amazon will have the ability to turn down apps and has stated it won’t approve offensive or pornographic content. It could lead to some gripes from developers about rejected apps, similar to complaints about the App Store, and it’s unclear if it will be as easy as one click to buy an app and get it on an Android device.
If Amazon proves to be a real player in the app market, expect a lot of developers to look Amazon’s way. They’ll be happy to get something closer to an App Store experience for their apps. “Apple is about the making the whole experience pleasant while Google is just focused on getting the job done and it’s not always pretty,” Gottlieb said. “Amazon is somewhere in between and it’s definitely closer to Apple than Google.”
Related research from GigaOM Pro (subscription req’d):
- Why Google Launched App Inventor
- Is Amazon the New Self-Publish Kingpin?
- Why Carriers Still Hold the Key to Handset Sales
Chicago-based Groupon is certainly one heck of a startup. Like Zynga it sort of came out of nowhere in 2009. Even last December I was sort of only vaguely aware of how fast it was growing.
But it was clear by early 2010 to the whole world that Groupon was on a tear. First a round valuing it at $250 million. Then just a couple of months later it raised new money at a $1.35 billion valuation.
And then in the last few weeks Yahoo offered something even higher for the company – between $1.7 billion on the low side and probably $4 billion on the high side. And Groupon passed.
Revenues are in the $50 million per month range, and the company has roughly 50% gross margins. By some measures, Groupon is the fastest growing company, ever.
Groupon is often said to be the next eBay at Silicon Valley insider dinners and events. But Groupon isn’t going to have the same success eBay has had.
At first blush it seems like a valid comparison. Groupon’s revenues and profits blow the early Ebay results out of the water. When eBay was three years old and going public in 1998 it had revenues of just $4.7 million. Groupon does that much in revenue every three days or so right now.
Today eBay has revenues of a little over $2 billion every three months and is worth around $30 billion. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that Groupon could eventually grow its revenues way beyond $2 billion/quarter – the local products and services category would easily bear that kind of fruit.
But there’s a couple of problems with Groupon. The first is how it scales – it needs a lot of sales people for each market it handles and already probably has more than 2,000 of them on payroll. But the real problem is the complete lack of a network effect to protect its business.
Ebay is expensive. And it has a horrible user interface. Buying stuff is a pain compared with sites like Amazon that have put real effort into making buying painless. It’s also expensive. Everyone would love a better eBay, but after ten years of people trying to kill it, it just keeps going.
Why? Because everyone’s already on eBay. And every new buyer or seller makes eBay more valuable than it was before. Anyone competing with them has to find a way to counter that, and it’s nearly impossible. Even free listings from big companies like Amazon and Yahoo flailed dramatically.
In other words, eBay would have to really work at it to destroy its core business. And since it dominates the market it can continue to charge exorbitant fees and not worry about the user experience.
Groupon has none of that. When Groupon gets a new user that’s great. But that user will quickly leave to Living Social or One Kings Lane or any of thousands of other competing sites for better deals. And when Groupon gets a new “seller,” there’s no reason why that seller won’t also go try out the competitors, too.
There’s just no network effect in Groupon’s business model. Which means competitors can flourish and margins will get crushed.
At TechCrunch Disrupt, Benchmark Capital’s Matt Cohler said he wasn’t sure if Groupon would succeed over the long term. I asked him if he wished he was an investor in Groupon:
That question keeps me up at night. the question for me is…if you look at it from a purely academic point of view, there are neither barriers to entry nor are there switching costs in that product. Typically when a product has those characteristics margins tend to collapse over time. In theory the only thing stopping that from happening is Groupon’s brand…It may turn out that daily deals are ad units, and lots of different products can apply that ad unit.
What can Groupon do to avoid having their margins crushed by competitors? Establish generous revenue sharing relationships with distribution partners, fast. And that appears to be exactly what they’re doing. In the next several weeks the company will likely announce partnerships with Yahoo and CitySearch, we’ve learned.
Oh, and one more partner, too. And that partner will be…eBay.
Update: Great email comment from Alex Rampell:
I actually think Groupon is a “winner take most” market and not winner take all. Amazon has a plurality yet a distinct minority of ecommerce share ($25B in 2009 revenue out of WW ecommerce rev of $600B) yet has a market cap of $74B, 2.5X that of eBay. No barriers to entry.
There are no barriers to entry for online commerce companies — yet Amazon keeps decimating the competition. There are, however, economies of scale. I think Groupon can be the Amazon of Online2Offline commerce, and there’s no reason they can’t get to $25B in annualized revenue like Amazon, but at a much higher margin.
Whether they’ll command the same kind of earnings multiple as Amazon is another story.
Scripting <b>News</b>: Rule 1 of local blogs
Recent stories. Twitter links. My 40 most-recent Twitter links, ranked by number of clicks. My bike. People are always asking about my bike. A picture named bikesmall.jpg. Here's a picture. AFP news pic. Calendar ...
Fox <b>News</b> Gives Fired NPR Reporter Juan Williams Fat New Contract <b>...</b>
Williams, who has served as a part-time contributor on Fox News since 1997, got an expanded, multi-year deal from the cable channel Thursday. Terms were not disclosed, though a source close to the network said Williams is getting a pay ...
Fashion, sports and magic: Moscow expats talk <b>news</b> over booze - RT
New Moscow Mayor, Russian Fashion Week and the Spartak – Chelsea match were among the most heavily discussed news items this week among Moscow expats.
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“It remains to be seen if it’s good in the long run but what’s exciting is Amazon has proven the ability to move product,” said Ben Gottlieb, president of mobile app maker Stand Alone Inc. “It all depends on the implementation. But if they live up to what they say, we can make more money.”
That’s a real issue. Gottlieb, who sells a crossword app, says he makes 20-30 times more selling his apps in the App Store compared to Android Market. It’s gotten a little better lately, but it’s still discouraging trying to sell in Android Market, which has more than 80,000 apps. Developers like Gottlieb say the store needs more recommendation and discovery tools, more categories, a better check-out system and more marketing muscle. These are all things that Amazon could immediately address.
Arron La, maker of the Advanced Task Manager app, said Amazon could help ignite sales by giving better recommendation tips and making checkouts easier for users. He said Google Checkout can be a nightmare at times, sometimes charging people multiple times for one app. A reliable and familiar system like Amazon’s could prompt people to open up their wallets, something they don’t do that much of in the Android Market. He also hopes that Amazon will do more to promote apps and advertise its app store, which Google has shied away from.
Google, for its part, is working on a number of changes, including a new web-based Android Market and a reported deal with PayPal for payments. And it just expanded the number of countries that can buy paid apps.Even with those improvements, La feels better about Amazon because the company seems more committed to making money, something Google seems less interested in. Google claims it doesn’t make any money from Android Market.
“Once you have the right things in place and you get that ecosystem going, you can definitely make money out of it,” he said. “But that’s been what’s hurting Android Market. Everyone using Google devices, they want and expect everything for free. When Google released Android market, they had no paid apps in the beginning.”
To be sure, an Amazon Android store or a similar market from Verizon Wireless could be a headache for developers. Developers would have to get in the habit of submitting and updating apps in multiple markets. Users might get confused as to who to turn to for apps or support. Amazon will have the ability to turn down apps and has stated it won’t approve offensive or pornographic content. It could lead to some gripes from developers about rejected apps, similar to complaints about the App Store, and it’s unclear if it will be as easy as one click to buy an app and get it on an Android device.
If Amazon proves to be a real player in the app market, expect a lot of developers to look Amazon’s way. They’ll be happy to get something closer to an App Store experience for their apps. “Apple is about the making the whole experience pleasant while Google is just focused on getting the job done and it’s not always pretty,” Gottlieb said. “Amazon is somewhere in between and it’s definitely closer to Apple than Google.”
Related research from GigaOM Pro (subscription req’d):
- Why Google Launched App Inventor
- Is Amazon the New Self-Publish Kingpin?
- Why Carriers Still Hold the Key to Handset Sales
Chicago-based Groupon is certainly one heck of a startup. Like Zynga it sort of came out of nowhere in 2009. Even last December I was sort of only vaguely aware of how fast it was growing.
But it was clear by early 2010 to the whole world that Groupon was on a tear. First a round valuing it at $250 million. Then just a couple of months later it raised new money at a $1.35 billion valuation.
And then in the last few weeks Yahoo offered something even higher for the company – between $1.7 billion on the low side and probably $4 billion on the high side. And Groupon passed.
Revenues are in the $50 million per month range, and the company has roughly 50% gross margins. By some measures, Groupon is the fastest growing company, ever.
Groupon is often said to be the next eBay at Silicon Valley insider dinners and events. But Groupon isn’t going to have the same success eBay has had.
At first blush it seems like a valid comparison. Groupon’s revenues and profits blow the early Ebay results out of the water. When eBay was three years old and going public in 1998 it had revenues of just $4.7 million. Groupon does that much in revenue every three days or so right now.
Today eBay has revenues of a little over $2 billion every three months and is worth around $30 billion. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that Groupon could eventually grow its revenues way beyond $2 billion/quarter – the local products and services category would easily bear that kind of fruit.
But there’s a couple of problems with Groupon. The first is how it scales – it needs a lot of sales people for each market it handles and already probably has more than 2,000 of them on payroll. But the real problem is the complete lack of a network effect to protect its business.
Ebay is expensive. And it has a horrible user interface. Buying stuff is a pain compared with sites like Amazon that have put real effort into making buying painless. It’s also expensive. Everyone would love a better eBay, but after ten years of people trying to kill it, it just keeps going.
Why? Because everyone’s already on eBay. And every new buyer or seller makes eBay more valuable than it was before. Anyone competing with them has to find a way to counter that, and it’s nearly impossible. Even free listings from big companies like Amazon and Yahoo flailed dramatically.
In other words, eBay would have to really work at it to destroy its core business. And since it dominates the market it can continue to charge exorbitant fees and not worry about the user experience.
Groupon has none of that. When Groupon gets a new user that’s great. But that user will quickly leave to Living Social or One Kings Lane or any of thousands of other competing sites for better deals. And when Groupon gets a new “seller,” there’s no reason why that seller won’t also go try out the competitors, too.
There’s just no network effect in Groupon’s business model. Which means competitors can flourish and margins will get crushed.
At TechCrunch Disrupt, Benchmark Capital’s Matt Cohler said he wasn’t sure if Groupon would succeed over the long term. I asked him if he wished he was an investor in Groupon:
That question keeps me up at night. the question for me is…if you look at it from a purely academic point of view, there are neither barriers to entry nor are there switching costs in that product. Typically when a product has those characteristics margins tend to collapse over time. In theory the only thing stopping that from happening is Groupon’s brand…It may turn out that daily deals are ad units, and lots of different products can apply that ad unit.
What can Groupon do to avoid having their margins crushed by competitors? Establish generous revenue sharing relationships with distribution partners, fast. And that appears to be exactly what they’re doing. In the next several weeks the company will likely announce partnerships with Yahoo and CitySearch, we’ve learned.
Oh, and one more partner, too. And that partner will be…eBay.
Update: Great email comment from Alex Rampell:
I actually think Groupon is a “winner take most” market and not winner take all. Amazon has a plurality yet a distinct minority of ecommerce share ($25B in 2009 revenue out of WW ecommerce rev of $600B) yet has a market cap of $74B, 2.5X that of eBay. No barriers to entry.
There are no barriers to entry for online commerce companies — yet Amazon keeps decimating the competition. There are, however, economies of scale. I think Groupon can be the Amazon of Online2Offline commerce, and there’s no reason they can’t get to $25B in annualized revenue like Amazon, but at a much higher margin.
Whether they’ll command the same kind of earnings multiple as Amazon is another story.
Scripting <b>News</b>: Rule 1 of local blogs
Recent stories. Twitter links. My 40 most-recent Twitter links, ranked by number of clicks. My bike. People are always asking about my bike. A picture named bikesmall.jpg. Here's a picture. AFP news pic. Calendar ...
Fox <b>News</b> Gives Fired NPR Reporter Juan Williams Fat New Contract <b>...</b>
Williams, who has served as a part-time contributor on Fox News since 1997, got an expanded, multi-year deal from the cable channel Thursday. Terms were not disclosed, though a source close to the network said Williams is getting a pay ...
Fashion, sports and magic: Moscow expats talk <b>news</b> over booze - RT
New Moscow Mayor, Russian Fashion Week and the Spartak – Chelsea match were among the most heavily discussed news items this week among Moscow expats.
eric seiger eric seiger
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