Today, JPM announced results, which presumably beat on the top line, while the bottom line is largely irrelevant as banks continue to operate under the auspices of FASB mark-to-myth, and as such no numbers can be trusted. As for the improvement in the credit card business, cited largely as a reason for the $1.12 EPS beat compared to $1.00 consensus, when consumers don't have to pay mortgages, they at least can afford to pay for trinkets. Which is why we believe the bulk of the numbers in the company's 23 page Q4 earnings presentation are largely worthless. The two slides that however bear mentioning are 9 and 10, which deal with the elephant in the room, mortgage repurchasing risk, and the foreclosure process update. Below are the highlights, among which we find that as of Q4, the average delinquency at foreclosure for JPM is now 14 months.
Retail Financial Services – year-end 2010 reserve position
- Mortgage repurchase risk assessed and appropriately reserved
- Agency repurchase exposure
- Repurchase losses life to date of $2.6B
- End of period reserve balance of $3.0B; reserved for presented and probable future demands
- 2011 realized losses estimated at $1.2B +/-
- Private label exposure – we have significant reserves
- Real Estate Portfolios
- Total reserves of $9.7B (excluding WaMu purchased credit-impaired) remain; 4Q10 NCOs annualized (before one-time impact) of $4.6B
- WaMu purchased credit-impaired portfolio is appropriately reserved for best estimate of remaining lifetime losses
Based on current conditions, we believe we are well-reserved going into 2011
Update on foreclosure process
We make every effort to avoid foreclosure
- Offered over 1mm modifications; 285,000 completed
- Prevented foreclosures at 2x the rate of those completed
- 51 Chase Home Ownership Centers (CHOCs) – plan to add 25 more in 2011
- 6,000 loss mitigation counselors to assist borrowers, across the country
Key facts about foreclosures
- Average delinquency at foreclosure is 14 months
- Recent foreclosure sales showed the following customer/loan characteristics:
- 57% non-owner occupied, of which 52% were vacant at foreclosure
- 43% owner-occupied, of which:
- 25% were vacant at foreclosure
- 53% did not qualify for modification (e.g., High DTI, unemployed, etc.)
- 18% did not respond to solicitations or trial modifications
Update on foreclosure process
- In September/October, we suspended approximately 127,000 foreclosures in 43 states
- Enhanced foreclosure processes
- All personnel involved in foreclosure affidavit process re-trained and re-certified
- All loans subject to pre-foreclosure sale review to confirm foreclosures are appropriate
- Implemented revised quality assurance and quality control processes
- We are resuming foreclosure proceedings
All fine. We would certainly like to hear however how the bank can make the last claim when it is clearly counterfactual, and espcecially now in a "post-Ibanez" world, the firm finds itself at a huge disadvantage. We will be listening to the 9 am earnings call closely for details.
Full presentation
Note: here is the economic Schedule for Week of January 16th.
Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.
• Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from November to December(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from December 2009.
Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 13.5% from the bottom, and now 0.2% above the pre-recession peak.
This was below expectations for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales ex-autos were up 0.5%; also below expectations of a 0.7% increase. Although slightly lower than expected, retail sales are now above the pre-recession peak in November 2007.
• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increased in December
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in December after having risen 0.3 percent in November. ... The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose to 76.0 percent, a rate 4.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 76.0% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.
This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 75.6% for Capacity Utilization.
•
Trade Deficit declined slightly in NovemberThe trade deficit in November was $38.3 billion, down slightly from $38.4 billion in October This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2010.
Imports have been mostly flat since May, and exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.
The petroleum deficit increased in November as import prices continued to rise - averaging $76.81 per barrel in November. Prices will be even higher in December. The deficit with China increased to $25.634 billion from $25,517 in October. Once again oil and China deficits are essentially the entire trade deficit (or even more).
•
CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.6% in NovemberCoreLogic reported that house prices declined again in November. This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index is down 5.07% over the last year, and off 30.9% from the peak.
The index is only 1.2% above the post-bubble low set in March 2009, and I expect to see a new post-bubble low for this index - possibly as early as next month or maybe in early 2011.
•
Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased in December Ceridian-UCLA reported "The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May."
This graph shows the index since January 1999.
•
NFIB: Small Business Optimism index declined slightly in December This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased slightly to 92.6 in December from 93.2 in November.
According to the NFIB: "This marks the 36th month of Index readings in the recession level".
The decline this month was small, and in general this index has been improving - but very slowly.
•
Other Economic Stories ... • From the Financial Times: Lisbon succeeds with debt auction
• From the NY Times: Portugal Bond Sale Succeeds Despite Budget Woes
• From the WSJ: Strong Demand at European Debt Auctions
• From the Association of American Railroads: AAR: Rail Traffic increased in December
• Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity continued to expand moderately"
• From RealtyTrac: Record Foreclosure activity in 2010
• Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 933 Institutions
Best wishes to all!
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft company Today, JPM announced results, which presumably beat on the top line, while the bottom line is largely irrelevant as banks continue to operate under the auspices of FASB mark-to-myth, and as such no numbers can be trusted. As for the improvement in the credit card business, cited largely as a reason for the $1.12 EPS beat compared to $1.00 consensus, when consumers don't have to pay mortgages, they at least can afford to pay for trinkets. Which is why we believe the bulk of the numbers in the company's 23 page Q4 earnings presentation are largely worthless. The two slides that however bear mentioning are 9 and 10, which deal with the elephant in the room, mortgage repurchasing risk, and the foreclosure process update. Below are the highlights, among which we find that as of Q4, the average delinquency at foreclosure for JPM is now 14 months.
Retail Financial Services – year-end 2010 reserve position
- Mortgage repurchase risk assessed and appropriately reserved
- Agency repurchase exposure
- Repurchase losses life to date of $2.6B
- End of period reserve balance of $3.0B; reserved for presented and probable future demands
- 2011 realized losses estimated at $1.2B +/-
- Private label exposure – we have significant reserves
- Real Estate Portfolios
- Total reserves of $9.7B (excluding WaMu purchased credit-impaired) remain; 4Q10 NCOs annualized (before one-time impact) of $4.6B
- WaMu purchased credit-impaired portfolio is appropriately reserved for best estimate of remaining lifetime losses
Based on current conditions, we believe we are well-reserved going into 2011
Update on foreclosure process
We make every effort to avoid foreclosure
- Offered over 1mm modifications; 285,000 completed
- Prevented foreclosures at 2x the rate of those completed
- 51 Chase Home Ownership Centers (CHOCs) – plan to add 25 more in 2011
- 6,000 loss mitigation counselors to assist borrowers, across the country
Key facts about foreclosures
- Average delinquency at foreclosure is 14 months
- Recent foreclosure sales showed the following customer/loan characteristics:
- 57% non-owner occupied, of which 52% were vacant at foreclosure
- 43% owner-occupied, of which:
- 25% were vacant at foreclosure
- 53% did not qualify for modification (e.g., High DTI, unemployed, etc.)
- 18% did not respond to solicitations or trial modifications
Update on foreclosure process
- In September/October, we suspended approximately 127,000 foreclosures in 43 states
- Enhanced foreclosure processes
- All personnel involved in foreclosure affidavit process re-trained and re-certified
- All loans subject to pre-foreclosure sale review to confirm foreclosures are appropriate
- Implemented revised quality assurance and quality control processes
- We are resuming foreclosure proceedings
All fine. We would certainly like to hear however how the bank can make the last claim when it is clearly counterfactual, and espcecially now in a "post-Ibanez" world, the firm finds itself at a huge disadvantage. We will be listening to the 9 am earnings call closely for details.
Full presentation
Note: here is the economic Schedule for Week of January 16th.
Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.
• Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from November to December(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from December 2009.
Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 13.5% from the bottom, and now 0.2% above the pre-recession peak.
This was below expectations for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales ex-autos were up 0.5%; also below expectations of a 0.7% increase. Although slightly lower than expected, retail sales are now above the pre-recession peak in November 2007.
• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increased in December
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in December after having risen 0.3 percent in November. ... The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose to 76.0 percent, a rate 4.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 76.0% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.
This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 75.6% for Capacity Utilization.
•
Trade Deficit declined slightly in NovemberThe trade deficit in November was $38.3 billion, down slightly from $38.4 billion in October This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2010.
Imports have been mostly flat since May, and exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.
The petroleum deficit increased in November as import prices continued to rise - averaging $76.81 per barrel in November. Prices will be even higher in December. The deficit with China increased to $25.634 billion from $25,517 in October. Once again oil and China deficits are essentially the entire trade deficit (or even more).
•
CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.6% in NovemberCoreLogic reported that house prices declined again in November. This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index is down 5.07% over the last year, and off 30.9% from the peak.
The index is only 1.2% above the post-bubble low set in March 2009, and I expect to see a new post-bubble low for this index - possibly as early as next month or maybe in early 2011.
•
Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased in December Ceridian-UCLA reported "The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May."
This graph shows the index since January 1999.
•
NFIB: Small Business Optimism index declined slightly in December This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased slightly to 92.6 in December from 93.2 in November.
According to the NFIB: "This marks the 36th month of Index readings in the recession level".
The decline this month was small, and in general this index has been improving - but very slowly.
•
Other Economic Stories ... • From the Financial Times: Lisbon succeeds with debt auction
• From the NY Times: Portugal Bond Sale Succeeds Despite Budget Woes
• From the WSJ: Strong Demand at European Debt Auctions
• From the Association of American Railroads: AAR: Rail Traffic increased in December
• Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity continued to expand moderately"
• From RealtyTrac: Record Foreclosure activity in 2010
• Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 933 Institutions
Best wishes to all!
bench craft company>
Read our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft company[reefeed]
bench craft company
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft companyToday, JPM announced results, which presumably beat on the top line, while the bottom line is largely irrelevant as banks continue to operate under the auspices of FASB mark-to-myth, and as such no numbers can be trusted. As for the improvement in the credit card business, cited largely as a reason for the $1.12 EPS beat compared to $1.00 consensus, when consumers don't have to pay mortgages, they at least can afford to pay for trinkets. Which is why we believe the bulk of the numbers in the company's 23 page Q4 earnings presentation are largely worthless. The two slides that however bear mentioning are 9 and 10, which deal with the elephant in the room, mortgage repurchasing risk, and the foreclosure process update. Below are the highlights, among which we find that as of Q4, the average delinquency at foreclosure for JPM is now 14 months.
Retail Financial Services – year-end 2010 reserve position
- Mortgage repurchase risk assessed and appropriately reserved
- Agency repurchase exposure
- Repurchase losses life to date of $2.6B
- End of period reserve balance of $3.0B; reserved for presented and probable future demands
- 2011 realized losses estimated at $1.2B +/-
- Private label exposure – we have significant reserves
- Real Estate Portfolios
- Total reserves of $9.7B (excluding WaMu purchased credit-impaired) remain; 4Q10 NCOs annualized (before one-time impact) of $4.6B
- WaMu purchased credit-impaired portfolio is appropriately reserved for best estimate of remaining lifetime losses
Based on current conditions, we believe we are well-reserved going into 2011
Update on foreclosure process
We make every effort to avoid foreclosure
- Offered over 1mm modifications; 285,000 completed
- Prevented foreclosures at 2x the rate of those completed
- 51 Chase Home Ownership Centers (CHOCs) – plan to add 25 more in 2011
- 6,000 loss mitigation counselors to assist borrowers, across the country
Key facts about foreclosures
- Average delinquency at foreclosure is 14 months
- Recent foreclosure sales showed the following customer/loan characteristics:
- 57% non-owner occupied, of which 52% were vacant at foreclosure
- 43% owner-occupied, of which:
- 25% were vacant at foreclosure
- 53% did not qualify for modification (e.g., High DTI, unemployed, etc.)
- 18% did not respond to solicitations or trial modifications
Update on foreclosure process
- In September/October, we suspended approximately 127,000 foreclosures in 43 states
- Enhanced foreclosure processes
- All personnel involved in foreclosure affidavit process re-trained and re-certified
- All loans subject to pre-foreclosure sale review to confirm foreclosures are appropriate
- Implemented revised quality assurance and quality control processes
- We are resuming foreclosure proceedings
All fine. We would certainly like to hear however how the bank can make the last claim when it is clearly counterfactual, and espcecially now in a "post-Ibanez" world, the firm finds itself at a huge disadvantage. We will be listening to the 9 am earnings call closely for details.
Full presentation
Note: here is the economic Schedule for Week of January 16th.
Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.
• Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from November to December(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from December 2009.
Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 13.5% from the bottom, and now 0.2% above the pre-recession peak.
This was below expectations for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales ex-autos were up 0.5%; also below expectations of a 0.7% increase. Although slightly lower than expected, retail sales are now above the pre-recession peak in November 2007.
• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increased in December
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in December after having risen 0.3 percent in November. ... The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose to 76.0 percent, a rate 4.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 76.0% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.
This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 75.6% for Capacity Utilization.
•
Trade Deficit declined slightly in NovemberThe trade deficit in November was $38.3 billion, down slightly from $38.4 billion in October This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2010.
Imports have been mostly flat since May, and exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.
The petroleum deficit increased in November as import prices continued to rise - averaging $76.81 per barrel in November. Prices will be even higher in December. The deficit with China increased to $25.634 billion from $25,517 in October. Once again oil and China deficits are essentially the entire trade deficit (or even more).
•
CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.6% in NovemberCoreLogic reported that house prices declined again in November. This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index is down 5.07% over the last year, and off 30.9% from the peak.
The index is only 1.2% above the post-bubble low set in March 2009, and I expect to see a new post-bubble low for this index - possibly as early as next month or maybe in early 2011.
•
Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased in December Ceridian-UCLA reported "The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May."
This graph shows the index since January 1999.
•
NFIB: Small Business Optimism index declined slightly in December This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased slightly to 92.6 in December from 93.2 in November.
According to the NFIB: "This marks the 36th month of Index readings in the recession level".
The decline this month was small, and in general this index has been improving - but very slowly.
•
Other Economic Stories ... • From the Financial Times: Lisbon succeeds with debt auction
• From the NY Times: Portugal Bond Sale Succeeds Despite Budget Woes
• From the WSJ: Strong Demand at European Debt Auctions
• From the Association of American Railroads: AAR: Rail Traffic increased in December
• Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity continued to expand moderately"
• From RealtyTrac: Record Foreclosure activity in 2010
• Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 933 Institutions
Best wishes to all!
bench craft company
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft company
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft company bench craft company bench craft company
bench craft company bench craft companyRead our Wii news of WiiWare MDK 2 revival in certification.
In a surprise even to insiders, 60 Minutes executive producer Jeff Fager will lead the news division, along with Bloomberg's David Rhodes. Howard Kurtz on the back story—and what it spells for Katie Couric.
Fox News pundit claims that "increase in rapes" is due largely to videogames.
bench craft company Within the Bowie market there have been a significant number of foreclosures. The current inventory of home for Prince George's homes is still well over the 12-18 month range. Some Bowie homes are getting multiple offers on them simultaneously. Many of those Bowie homes are on significant discount and have been on the market extended periods of time. We are seeing signs of improvement with may purchasers looking to take advantage of the $8000 stimulus package. Yet we are not seeing things move quickly with the banks that are still processing short sales in 90 days or more.
The Bowie foreclosure market presents many deals for purchasers. I would hope that more people in their homes could keep them which would help stabilizes some of the home values. Here are a few options you can use to help avoid foreclosure in Bowie.
CONTACT YOUR LENDER OR SERVICERMany people that are late on their property just do not respond. It is much easier on you as an individual if you talk to your lender. Not all lenders or servicers are accommodating but you truly never know until you ask. It is in your best interest to open and respond to all correspondence from your lender or servicer.
CALL A NONPROFIT COUNCELOR Because of the current economy in Bowie the state has a hotline that has counselors for free. These counselors are focused on help Bowie residents along with all counties in the state. The Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD) are working with HOPE housing counselors at 1-888-995-HOPE. They HOPE team has many options along with other options.
The Housing Initiative Partnership, Inc. has bilingual capacity and seeks to help people in the Bowie and Prince Georges County area specifically. The company can be contacted at 301-699-3835. There are many organizations available to aid in counseling through this process. This two are just good examples of the many options available to Bowie residents.
TRY TO REFINANCE OR LOAN MODIFICATION Within the Bowie Maryland area DHCD has several loan products available to residents. The counselors help to
determine eligibility for the programs. Some of the available programs include:
• LifeLine Refinance Program
• Homesaver Refinance Program
• Bridge-to-Hope emergency loan program
Bowie residents have a number of loan refinance options available to them. The fact remains, Bowie residents must call in order to initiate any of these programs. You can reach out to www.mdhope.org to get more details.
Avoid Foreclosure "Rescue" ScamsHaving a pending Foreclosure, Bowie residents are susceptible to loan scams. Many people will offer to help with a focus of ripping you off. Be sure to check with the Better Business Bureau and DLLR to see if there are any issues with the account. Your best option is to have a lawyer review all documentation before your move forward.
The key point to know as Bowie resident is you must take action. If you stay in touch with the servicer, reach out to the counselor, get a lawyer, and avoid the scams you will be in a better position to save your home.
