Wednesday, February 2, 2011

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..........and bullshit walks! Easy as that for start-ups when it comes to making up your mind about raising additional capital. Are we in a bubble? No idea but this question keeps creeping up. Those of us who went through the bubble at the turn of the century are secretly hoping we're not in another one. Those who don't remember the last one are also worried wondering whether all the old-timers are right. One way or another, it doesn't really matter.

You'll hear multiple opinions on whether to raise money at times like this. I have a very clear opinion on this. It's based on the fact that I believe the best venture backed businesses are in it for the long haul. These are companies with a real product that add value to their customers. These are businesses generating real cashflow intent on growing to significant scale. Finally, these are businesses which will use additional money to expand. Hence, here's my take on when to take money (with focus on EU based businesses):

1. Sequoia or Kleiner are on the phone. Start negotiating, get the best deal you can get and make sure to raise the money. Say what you will but Tier 1 VC's from the US will lead to a far larger exit. Specifically the top tier funds have access to management for your businesses, access to potential partners and are likely to sit on the boards of the companies that could buy you. You'd be dumb not to take money but do so wisely.

2. A tier 1 fund from Europe is interested. Find out whether there's a good fit with your businesses. I've often enough written about how to figure this out and I say to focus on the partner and not the fund when doing your due diligence. Negotiate a good deal and take the money. Tier 1 funds in Europe have learned to add value, have significantly better networks nowadays and will most likely get you bought by a US based business.

2.5. A tier 1 fund from your home country calls up. I've labeled this 2.5 because Tier 1 funds in Europe tend to only differentiate themselves based on where they are located. The rest is mostly the same. The benefit of a tier 1 locally invested in your business is the proximity. It's in your interest. You want them closer than further. If the terms are right and you have offers from abroad and locally, I'd sway towards local but the vibe has to be right. You won't be necessarily doing anything wrong taking money from a London VC verses a German VC when you are in Germany. The London VC may even be around more than the German VC. This all depends on the partner.

3. A tier 2 fund from the US calls up. Ask yourself first why they found you? Go ahead and ask. Further, research the fund and find out what they've done in the past. Have they invested in Europe before? Are they only looking to Europe because their dealflow in the US sucks? Think twice about whether they will invest the necessary time to be in Europe and invested in your business. If the deal terms are good and you are comfortable with the partner doing the deal, take the money. They can still be helpful in accessing US buyers. They are highly unlikely to open as many doors as Kleiner or Sequoia but they definitely know more people in the US than many European partners. Plus make sure you want to go to the US. They will probably eventually ask you to move the company there.

4. A tier 2 fund from outside your home region in the EU finds you. Ask yourself how the hell they found you. More importantly, if you found them, ask yourself why the Tier 1 funds from your local region aren't interested in what you are doing. Say what you will but a UK based fund prefers to invest first in the UK and then rest of Europe. A German fund in Germany and then rest of Europe, etc. Although valuations are good and the power is in your hands to some extent think twice. There are times when taking money could be detrimental to the health of your business (as well as to your equity stake). It's nice to get a higher valuation and some extra cash but make sure it doesn't ultimately cost you more than you think.

5. A tier 2 fund from your local region calls up. Again, ask yourself first why the tier 1 funds aren't interested. Don't underestimate the value of many tier 2 funds though. Maybe they aren't the best known name in the market. At the same time, maybe they are striving to become a better fund. Maybe the number two in the market will work harder than the number one for you. This may be in your interest. Maybe! Do your homework and if you are comfortable with terms, take the money. Be far more diligent in this case though. Think longer and harder about whether you really can do more with the money now or prefer to hold out a bit.

6. Some tier 3 fund you've never heard of and can't find out much about approaches you. Be really careful. There are lots of people in this business who sure won't be around in a couple years. Money from these guys can be a nightmare. At the same time, maybe your business is the nightmare and you couldn't raise money at any other time. One way or another, things aren't going right one way or another. If you need the money to survive and know you'll never get more down the road, do everything you can to raise cash now. Maybe you've just been approached by the future Kleiner or Sequoia of Europe. Maybe not.....but money talks and bullshit walks!

You'll notice a general trend from 1. through 6. above. Take the money! If you can get good terms, know how to put the money you raise to work for growth and like the partner from the funds approaching you, go for it. The getting is good right now. As a VC I'm worried about valuations and bursting bubbles, etc. but as an entrepreneur you should be optimizing for you business. Money is always good. Ignore all the crap about having too much money and being negatively swayed by this. In this post I am defaulting to the fact that I think you are a smart entrepreneur. You aren't going to raise money to get that Porsche as a company car. You're going to grow your business and become amazing. Some will say I am wrong but I'd prefer to have the cash in the bank and worry about being wrong later.

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Friday, January 28, 2011

Who's Making Money

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Shout-out to Nathan Koppel at the WSJ Law Blog (or his editor), for coming up with the perfect title for this post: The Frozen One?

Jewish hockey player Jason Bailey is suing the Anaheim Ducks NHL team, alleging that he was subjected to a hostile working environment. Not the run-of-the-mill hostility that comes from playing a sport where people regularly lose their own teeth and then refuse to purchase replacement chompers on the theory that “chicks dig gap teeth and lisps.” No, Bailey claims that the hostility was directed at him because he is Jewish.

I know this comes straight out of “Racial Conspiracy Theories 101,” but I can’t be the only one to notice that this suit was brought against the Anaheim Ducks, a franchise that was once owned by Disney and called the Anaheim Mighty Ducks (because anytime you can buy a hockey team in order to promote a movie staring Emilo Estevez, that’s something you’ve just got to do). And Disney of course has long been suspected of harboring anti-Semitic views. And… you know what, I’ll kick back with a glass of manischewitz and discuss this with my Jewish brothers some other time.

Right now, Bailey is making some much more reasonable allegations against the organization….

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The Orange County Register reports that after signing a three-year contract with the Ducks in 2008, Bailey was assigned to the Bakersfield Condors. According to the complaint, that’s where the troubles began:

From the beginning to the end of his time with the Condors, Bailey “was subject to severe and/or pervasive harassment on the basis of religion by being forced to endure a barrage of anti-Semitic, offensive and degrading verbal attacks regarding his Jewish faith” from the Condors’ head coach, the complaint alleges.
The head coach degraded Bailey’s faith and frequently commented about Jews as ones who “only care about money and who’s who,” the complaint goes on to say.
The minor league team’s assistant head coach also harassed Bailey, the complaint alleges, and once approached him in the locker room and, in reference to his own Facebook page, said “oh, I got a friend request from a dirty Jew.”

A quick Google search reveals that Marty Raymond was then and is now the coach of the Bakersfield Condors. The complaint says that Raymond was suspended at the time and made an apology to Bailey. But Bailey claims the team’s actions didn’t go far enough.

It certainly appears that, if the allegations are true, the Condors tried to keep the incident hidden from the press. Here’s a May 2009 Bakersfield Eyewitness News report that seems to be about the incident:

At the end of February of this year, Condors coach Marty Raymond and assistant coach Mark Pederson were suspended in the middle of the hockey season. Raymond was suspended for seven days; Pederson for two weeks. At the time a specific reason was not given for the disciplinary action.
“It was an internal matter, it still is an internal matter,” said Condors Team president Matthew Riley. “We dealt with it, I believe, very appropriately at the time and took action and all parties involved are satisfied with the action that was taken.”

Well, maybe not all the parties were satisfied — nor should they be, if the allegations are true. I imagine it’s hard enough to make it as a minority hockey player without the coach riding you because of your ethnicity. Would it really be so hard for Anaheim to populate its organization with people who are not racists?

Anaheim brass has not responded to the complaint. But Condors president Matt Riley, the guy who was so astute in briefing the press back when coach Raymond was suspended, was reached at the minor-league All Star Game that is being held in Bakersfield. He was as tight-lipped as ever:

Eyewitness News asked Condors president Matthew Riley for a response to the lawsuit.
“I don’t know anything about it, I’m here for the All-Star game, ” said Riley.

Why does Riley remind me of a goalie who has lost his stick?

The Frozen One? Jewish Hockey Player Files Discrimination Suit [WSJ Law Blog]/> Jewish player sues Anaheim Ducks, saying he was mistreated [Orange County Register]/> Racist comments may have led to Condors coaches’ suspension [Bakersfield Now]

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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are planning to start Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames in left field to open the 2011 season.

No, that’s not a typo.

It is the same Jay Gibbons who was out of the league in 2008 and 2009 only to resurface in Los Angeles in 2010 and hit .280 with five HR in 75 AB. It is the same Marcus Thames who has never had more than 348 AB in a season and is a career .248 hitter.

In regards to Gibbons, obviously it’s a tiny sample size and impossible to draw any conclusions from. The fact of the matter is that Gibbons hasn’t posted a usable season since 2005 (.277, 26 HR) and, at 34 years old, it's nearly impossible to expect any significant production in 2011. In fact, it would appear much more likely that he falls flat on his face.

Thames has power, but strikes out a ton (28.1 percent over his 1,946 AB career) making it nearly impossible to hit for a usable option. He’s never had the opportunity to play full time and is much better suited as part of a platoon.

But is a Gibbons/Thames pairing better than what they may have elsewhere?

The Dodgers have a pair of in-house options who could emerge by year’s end and give their current platoon a run for their money. Let’s take a look:

Trayvon Robinson
He spent the year at Double-A in 2010, hitting .300 with nine HR, 57 RBI, 80 R and 38 SB. The 10th-round draft pick in 2005 has slowly made his way through the Dodgers system and now, at 23, appears primed to take the next step.

He has the potential to be a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter, with 85 stolen bases over the past two seasons. However, he needs to improve his contact rate if he has any intention of making an impact. In 2010, he struck out 125 times versus 73 walks. It was his fourth straight season of at least 104 Ks and the first time he has walked more than 60 times in a year.

To get an idea, just look at his strikeout rates over the past four years:

2007: 30.05%

2008: 23.69%

2009: 27.13%

2010: 28.80%

It's impossible to be a usable leadoff type option with that type of strikeout rate. Robinson needs to be able to get on base regularly and if he isn’t making contact, it is just not going to happen. With the fear of his strikeout rate further increasing as he moves up against tougher competition (he hasn’t played above Double-A), he appears to be a longshot at this point. He has the speed, but needs to develop the rest of his game early in 2011.

Jerry Sands
He split time between Single and Double-A in 2010 hitting .301 with 35 HR, 93 RBI, 102 R and 18 SB. The SB total is probably a bit deceiving and I wouldn’t put any stock in it. His ticket to the major leagues is his power, and he showed it off in a big way.

He was consistently good at each level he stopped at in 2010, helping to give hope that he can maintain the power as he climbs the ladder:

Single-A: .333, 18 HR, 46 RBI in 243 AB

Double-A: .270, 17 HR, 47 RBI in 259 AB

Like Robinson, he also could have a problem with strikeouts as he moves to the upper-levels, though his rate was actually better in 2010.

At Double-A he posted a 23.94 percent rate, and while that is concerning, his power certainly helps to offset it. Yes, there is a concern that he may hit for a lower average than fantasy owners would prefer, but if he hits a ton of home runs it is something that we can easily overlook. Plus, you have to think that his walk rate (12.7 percent) gives hope that he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Power hitters are no longer a certainty in baseball, so someone that can bring 30-plus HR power to the table is always going to have value. The 28th-round draft pick in 2008 easily could overtake Gibbons/Thames for the LF job, or maybe the Dodgers will get tired of the light-hitting James Loney filling 1B (Sands has seen significant time both at 1B and in the outfield in the minors).

Sands should start the year at Triple-A and if he makes a statement early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the outfield before long.

What are your thoughts on these two players? Who do you think has the better chance of reaching the major leagues in 2011? Would you target either in fantasy formats?

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Ackley, Dustin

Archer, Chris

Britton, Zach

Cousins, Scott

Iglesias, Jose

Kipnis, Jason

Lawrie, Brett

Mesoraco, Devin

Pineda, Michael

Ramos, Wilson

Revere, Ben

Taylor, Michael

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It was only a couple months ago that the Rangers were (near) the top of the baseball world. They fulfilled their role as David, when slaying the Goliath Yankees, and endeared themselves to millions of baseball fans across the country with their love of all things hustle.

But things changed for the Rangers in a New York minute (you knew that New York would get back in the discussion) when Cliff Lee, their undisputed ace, shocked the baseball world and fled back to Philadelphia. Just like that, the Rangers rotation—a strength—turned into a weakness. Panic spread across Texas.

So they did what any right-minded club would do—go sign the next biggest name available. Because if you can't have the prom queen, you should at least get her still cute best friend...right? Except in this case, it's wrong...very wrong.

The Rangers are closing in on signing 3B Adrian Beltre to a 6-year, $96 million dollar deal that frankly makes, well, no sense. There are definitely positives to Beltre—he's coming off a big season, he's one of the best fielding third baseman (and players) in all of baseball, and he does have a power bat. But for the few reasons that the deal does make some sense, there are many more reasons why it doesn't.

Why? Let's break it down:

Beltre will be 32 years old a week into the season—not ancient—but definitely edging towards the downside of his career. On top of that, this will be his 14th season. If there's such a thing as a "young" veteran, Beltre isn't it. Do you really see this guy still going strong when he's in his 17th, 18th or 19th year of his career (or the second half of his contract)?

In 13 previous seasons, Beltre has made the postseason ONCE! That was in 2004-2005, while still with the Dodgers. Beltre's line was .267 AVG, one RBI, zero extra-base hits, three K's, zero BB's—a series that saw the Dodgers lose handily to the Cardinals in four games. For the record, that was the same year he had his breakout season, when he finished second in the NL MVP race.

Beltre is notorious for having big years in the last year of his contract (see 2004 with Dodgers, 2010 with Boston). I think we saw with Seattle what happens when the guy isn't as motivated to play for the next big contract

Texas is a SMALL market team. Giving an aging player a deal averaging $16 million a year is ABSURD. Look at the Yankees with A-Rod. A-Rod is making $30 million a year for the next eight seasons, yet is already being hampered with injuries. Throwing this amount of money at guys over 30 years old with 10+ years of experience is a huge risk, especially for a team like Texas.

As a team, Texas had a salary of around $55 million last year, which ranked 26th in the majors. That means that they're going to give Beltre a contract that composes nearly 29 percent of their salary from last season.

How was this the price set for Beltre this offseason? Carlos Gonzalez—a much younger OF coming off a major season, who has more upside than Beltre, just agreed to a seven-year, $80 million deal with Colorado. Are we to believe that Beltre is worth $16 million more (and a year less) than CarGo?

Where is Michael Young going? Remember, your CURRENTLY highest-paid player who JUST HAPPENS to play third base. He has three more years left on his deal, worth $48 million. Are the Rangers ready to eat $16 million a year for Young to have Beltre play the same position? Young is 34 years old and has a big contract for the next three seasons. What team is going to be willing to eat that amount of money while taking Young on the downside of his career? On top of that, Young has a no-trade clause in his contract with 22 teams on it, further limiting the options the Rangers have with him.

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